Oscar Predictions 2009

Oscar Predictions

It's time for the Oscars. Here are my thoughts on the main categories. I'll give the nominees, my prediction, and my personal pick.

Best Picture
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Frost/Nixon
Milk
The Reader
Slumdog Millionaire

Prediction: Slumdog Millionaire. The front runner for the past few months. This year I've seen all the Best Picture nominees. I don't feel any of them were really outstanding. All good and well made, but I feel some better movies were released in 2008. This category missed out on several of my favorites movies of the year like WALL-E, The Wrestler, The Dark Knight, Revolutionary Road and even In Bruges.

Personal Pick: Milk. I usually have fundamental problems with biopics, but this one contains strong performances and a solid screenplay.

Best Actor
Richard Jenkins - The Visitor
Frank Langella - Frost/Nixon
Sean Penn - Milk
Brad Pitt - The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Mickey Rourke - The Wrestler

Prediction: Sean Penn. I'd say this is Penn's best performance next to Dead Man Walking. He pulls off the mannerisms and accent. He stays pretty low key and rarely show boats with this one.

Personal pick: Mickey Rourke. Rourke knocks this one out of the park. He fulfills much of the promise he showed as an actor in the 1980s. Not only is this a great comeback story, but I thought it was the most personal and touching performance of the year.

Best Actress
Anne Hathaway - Rachel Getting Married
Angelina Jolie - Changeling
Melissa Leo - Frozen River
Meryl Streep - Doubt
Kate Winslet - The Reader

Prediction: Kate Winslet. It's her 6th nomination with no previous win so I think they Academy will finally recognize her. Meryl Streep seems to be the biggest threat, but I really found her the worst part of Doubt. She was over the top and turned her scenes into unneeded comedic relief. Special notice of Melissa Leo who gives a subtle, strong performance in the little seen Frozen River.

Personal pick: Kate Winslet. It should have been for Revolutionary Road though. I thought that was a fantastic performance and much stronger.

Best Supporting Actor
Josh Brolin - Milk
Robert Downey, Jr - Tropic Thunder
Philip Seymour Hoffman - Doubt
Heath Ledger - The Dark Knight
Michael Shannon - Revolutionary Road

Prediction: Heath Ledger. Ledger owns the part of The Joker in The Dark Knight. He's the best thing in a strong and entertaining movie. It's an instant, iconic role.

Personal pick: Heath Ledger. Ledger not winning would be a major shock and upset.

Best Supporting Actress
Amy Adams - Doubt
Penelope Cruz - Vicky Christina Barcelona
Viola Davis -Doubt
Taraji P. Henson - The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Marisa Tomei - The Wrestler

Prediction: Penelope Cruz. Cruz and Viola Davis have been the front runners. Cruz has the advantage and history of working with Woody Allen. Davis has a short but critically lauded scene in Doubt. I was bothered by all the crying, slobbering, and snot though.

Personal pick: Marisa Tomei. She's won before (My Cousin Vinny), but she's grown as an actress since that movie. Like the movie itself, I think Tomei has the more personal, heartfelt performance of this group.

Best Director
David Fincher - The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Ron Howard - Frost/Nixon
Gus Van Sant - Milk
Stephen Daldry - The Reader
Danny Boyle - Slumdog Millionaire

Prediction: Danny Boyle. Boyle has made movies that I prefer (Trainspotting, Shallow Grave, 28 Days Later), but this one seems to have touched and inspired a larger audience. The film was made with many non-actors and in difficult circumstances in Mumbai so I think he'll be awarded for that hard work.

Personal pick: I'm not totally sold on the film's story, but I do like Boyle's work.

Best Adapted Screenplay
Eric Roth - The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
John Patrick Shanley - Doubt
Peter Morgan - Frost/Nixon
David Hare - The Reader
Simon Beaufoy - Slumdog Millionaire

Prediction: Simon Beaufoy. Best Picture winners often win a screenplay award as well making this the front runner.

Personal pick: I had problems with the screenplays on all of these films. I guess I'd go with Eric Roth's Benjamin Button since it took a short story and expanded it into a larger story.

Best Original Screenplay
Courtney Hunt - Frozen River
Mike Leigh - Happy-Go-Lucky
Martin McDonagh - In Bruges
Dustin Lance Black - Milk
Andrew Stanton, Jim Reardon - WALL-E

Prediciton: Dustin Lance Black. First time screenwriter on a well liked movie about an important subject. Oscar loves that.

Personal pick: Stanton & Reardon. My favorite movie of the year was WALL-E, and I thought the story was great. I'd love to see the Academy ignore their usual prejudice against animated films, and give the award to this most deserving movie. In Bruges is also a movie worthy of recognition.

Best Animated Film
Bolt
Kung-Fu Panda
WALL-E

Prediciton: WALL-E. This should be a lock. The others were good (esp. Bolt), but I think WALL-E should have been nominated in the Best Picture race. I enjoyed it more than any of the other nominees.

Personal pick: WALL-E. Pixar just makes great movies.