Oscar Predictions

It's time for the Oscars. Here are my thoughts on the main categories. I'll give the nominees, my prediction, and my personal pick.

Best Picture
Atonement
Juno
Michael Clayton
No Country for Old Men
There Will Be Blood

Prediction: No Country for Old Men. This has generally been considered the front runner, and it is well deserving. The Coen Bros. adaptation of Cormac McCarthy's novel is a perfect blend of author and filmmakers. I've been a fan for many years so it would be thrilling to see the Coen's have a big night at the Oscars.

Personal pick: There Will Be Blood. As big a fan as I am of the Coen's and No Country, I still think this sprawling epic from director Paul Thomas Anderson was the better movie. I was fascinated from the first frame with the exquisite camera work and brilliant score from Jonny Greenwood. It's actually exciting to have two such dark and fascinating movies in the running for best picture.

Best Actor
George Clooney - Michael Clayton
Daniel Day-Lewis - There Will Be Blood
Johnny Depp - Sweeny Todd
Tommy Lee Jones - In the Valley of Elah
Viggo Mortensen - Eastern Promises

Prediction: Daniel Day-Lewis. I think this has to be the most "sure thing" along with the supporting actor category. Day-Lewis dominates as a oil tycoon who gains wealth and power while losing his humanity. It's a stunning performance and though still relatively unseen by the masses has spawned some catch phrases.

Personal pick: Daniel Day-Lewis. For full disclosure, Viggo Mortensen is the only other nominee I've seen to this point, but Day-Lewis's performance is really one for the ages.

Best Actress
Cate Blanchett - Elizabeth: The Golden Age
Julie Christie - Away From Her
Marion Cotillard - La Vie en Rose
Laura Linney - The Savages
Ellen Page - Juno

Prediction: Julie Christie. It has been 42 years since Christie won Best Actress for Darling. She's won several critics awards and she's given many fine performances in her career. The biggest marks against her is that the film was not widely seen and she hasn't done much to campaign for the award. I still think her long career will push her up to the podium.

Personal pick: Laura Linney. This is another category where I've not seen many nominees, only Ellen Page actually. Page was cute, but really Juno overall is a little too cute. Cotillard is probably the strongest contender outside Christie, but she does star in a foreign film which has been historically difficult for acting awards. I'm a Linney and Blanchett fan. They are always worth watching. Blanchett has won before, and Linney has been snubbed too many times so my sentimental vote goes to Laura Linney.

Best Supporting Actor
Casey Affleck - Assassination of Jesse James
Javier Bardem - No Country for Old Men
Philip Seymour Hoffman - Charlie Wilson's War
Hal Holbrook - Into the Wild
Tom Wilkinson - Michael Clayton

Prediction: Javier Bardem. This one has to be considered a lock. Bardem has dominated all other year end awards. His turn as Anton Chigurh, the unstoppable force of evil in No Country, is a stunner.

Personal pick: Javier Bardem. That's my call, friendo.

Best Supporting Actress
Cate Blanchett - I'm Not There
Ruby Dee - American Gangster
Saorise Ronan - Atonement
Amy Ryan - Gone Baby Gone
Tilda Swinton - Michael Clayton

Prediction: Amy Ryan. This category usually ends up with a surprise win. That may not happen this year, but I think it is a three way toss-up between Ryan, Blanchett, and Swinton. The Academy loves Blanchett (see multiple nominations), but her movie was little seen. Ryan throws down a perfect Boston accent. Is Swinton, Hollywood enough? As for the others, Dee has too little screen time and Ronan is too young.

Personal pick: Cate Blanchett. She is always good, and she does Bob Dylan. But do we need to see her win for doing an impersonation again (The Aviator). She is capable of so much more.

Best Director
Paul Thomas Anderson - There Will Be Blood
Ethan & Joel Coen - No Country for Old Men
Tony Gilroy - Michael Clayton
Jason Reitman - Juno
Julian Schnabel - The Diving Bell and the Butterfly

Prediction: Ethan & Joel Coen. Like Best Picture I'll be happy with a Coen Bros. win or Anderson. I've been a fan of both for years now. The Coen's won the DGA award and that is a very good predictor from year's past.

Personal pick: The Coen's and Anderson. Yes, I'm cheating and calling a tie. Anderson made the best movie of his career so far. The Coen Bros. have thrilled and entertained me for years. They should have more than a screenplay Oscar (Fargo) at this point anyway.

Best Original Screenplay
Diablo Cody - Juno
Nancy Oliver - Lars and the Real Girl
Tony Gilroy - Michael Gilroy
Brad Bird - Ratatouille
Tamara Jenkins - The Savages

Prediction: Diablo Cody. I think the former stripper will win because Hollywood likes to think it is young, hip, and makes a great story. My fear is that now we'll be getting copy cat movies that drowned us in pseudo-hip. Sure the movie has a distinctive flavor, but it is also too cute, too "wink-wink" hip, and too lightweight.

Personal pick: Brad Bird. Yes, I'll go with the animated movie. Come on, he made a rat who cooks entertaining, funny, and worthy of our compassion.

Best Adapted Screenplay
Christopher Hampton - Atonement
Sarah Polley - Away From Her
Ronald Harwood - The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
Paul Thomas Anderson - There Will Be Blood
Joel & Ethan Coen - No Country for Old Men

Prediction: Joel & Ethan Coen. As mentioned before, I think this was a perfect match between author and filmmakers. The Coen Bros. have always had an great feel for dark stories. Their adaptation is very faithful, and although I love the Coen's original stuff, I'd like to see them take a crack at another McCarthy novel.

Personal pick: Joel & Ethan Coen. Yes, There Will Be Blood was my favorite film of 2007, but I've never read Oil! the story on which it was based. I have read No Country for Old Men. Loved the book, love the movie. It is one of the rare occasions where the movie is up to the challenge and matches the effectiveness of the book.

Best Animated Film
Persepolis
Ratatouille
Surf's Up

Prediction: Ratatouille. Pixar dominates this category as well it should. They always make quality product, and when Brad Bird is involved (The Incredibles) it is top notch.

Personal pick: Ratatouille. I've seen it a couple of times now. It's just a solid movie. I did enjoy Persepolis which has a great animation style, but Ratatouille really is more entertaining. Surf's Up just looked like a Disney reject, and I'm shocked it beat out The Simpson's Movie for the last nomination.

And to end with some quick predictions in some other categories:

Best Cinematography: Roger Deakins is nominated for No Country and Jesse James, but that means votes may be split so I predict Robert Elswit will win for the beautiful There Will Be Blood. I actually hope Deakins wins for one of them as he has never won, and I think he is the best cinematographer working today.

Best Film Editing: This one is made interesting by the name Roderick Jaynes (my prediction). Jaynes is not a real person. It's the pseudonym for the Coen Bros. who edit their films. With this, they are actually personally nominated for 4 Oscars giving them the chance to make some history if they win them all. Christoper Rouse is nominated for The Bourne Ultimatum, and although I like the Bourne movies, I'd rather not see it win an editing award. My pick would go to Dylan Tichneor for There Will Be Blood.

Best Original Score: Jonny Greenwood for There Will Be Blood was robbed by ridiculous Oscar rules and therefore this category does not matter. No other score this year came close to this one.

Best Original Song: Normally I wouldn't even mention this category as it has a history of craptastic nominees. However, this year the film Once is nominated with the beautiful and touching "Falling Slowly" by Glen Hansard and Marketa Irglova. It was one of my favorite movies of the year and included several songs good enough to fit in this category. Hopefully the three Enchanted songs will cancel each other.

Best Documentary Feature: I normally see more of these, but I feel confident having only seen No End in Sight that it should take the prize. I think everyone should see this movie on how the Iraq invasion went wrong. It effects our present and future.

Best Art Direction: Sweeny Todd
Best Costume Design: Atonement
Best Makeup: La Vie en Rose
Best Visual Effects: Transformers. Giant robots fighting look COOL.
Best Sound Mixing: Transformers. Loud usually equals win.
Best Sound Editing: Transformers. For the past 40 years the sound mixing winner gets Sound Editing too. Could Transformers get 3 Oscars?